(Top)

List of p(doom) values

p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.

  • <0.01%

    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta

    (less likely than an asteroid)
  • 10%

    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder

    (Specifically means AI takeover)
  • 10%

    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI

    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
  • 14%

    Machine learning researchers

    (From 2022, median value is 5%)
  • 15%

    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

  • 10-20%

    Paul Christiano

    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
  • 10-25%

    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

  • 20%

    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

  • 20-30%

    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

  • 5-50%

    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

  • 30%

    AI Safety Researchers

    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
  • 33%

    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

  • 35%

    Eli Lifland

  • 40%

    AI engineer

    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
  • 40%

    Joep Meindertsma
    Founder of PauseAI

    (The remaining 60% consists largely of "we can pause".)
  • 50%

    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

  • 10-90%

    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

  • 60%

    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

  • 70%

    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

  • >80%

    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

  • >99%

    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI

What about yours?

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